NEW POLL: Mooney for Senate campaign conducted a survey of the Republican primary field

MEMORANDUM

FROM: Mark Harris, Osage Research

TO: Interested Parties

RE: New Polling Data

DATE: April 13, 2023

Summary

The Mooney for Senate campaign conducted a survey of the Republican primary field from April 5th – 6th, 2023. The survey shows that although Justice starts with a large name identification advantage, once voters are informed of Justice’s liberal record, Rep. Alex Mooney jumps out to a lead.

The reality is that this race will become the classic liberal vs. conservative primary. Just last cycle Rep. Alex Mooney won a very similar, highly contested primary versus fellow incumbent Republican David McKinley. In that race, Mooney also started down double digits, but once we could contrast the record of both candidates, Rep. Mooney won by a whopping 19 percentage points.

Just consider the endorsements so far, like the Club for Growth, Senate Conservatives Fund, Gun Owners of America, U.S. Senator Rand Paul, WV Treasurer Riley Moore, 23 WV State Delegates, and 5 WV State Senators.

Jim Justice’s liberal record will be a major issue in the race, and the data indicates it is a major vulnerability for Justice. He is very vulnerable to attacks on his record and sees a dramatic reduction in support after voters are informed about his past.

Furthermore, once Rep. Mooney increases his name ID throughout the entire state, his ballot position will only increase further.

In fact, among registered Republicans, the hits are particularly effective where Mooney jumps out to an eight-point lead 48-40. Among very conservative voters, who comprise almost half the electorate, Mooney has a whooping twenty-one-point lead 56%-35%.

Rep. Alex Mooney is the only announced candidate in the race. Senator Joe Manchin has publicly stated that he is waiting until December to announce his decision.

Rep. Mooney has almost $1.4 million cash on hand and raised more than $500,000 in the first quarter.

Furthermore, the Club for Growth has announced its intention to spend at least $10 million to support Rep. Mooney in the primary (Hoppy Kercheval Show, April 10, 2023).

Methodology

Osage Research conducted a survey of likely Republican voters in West Virginia using live callers to cell phones and landlines as well as text-to-web interviews. The margin of error is 4.9% on the survey. The quotas were set for age, gender, and geography to reflect a primary electorate.

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